{"id":9626,"date":"2026-04-10T11:20:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T11:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/04\/10\/sermaye-sadece-getiri-degil-ongorulebilir-bir-ortam-ariyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T11:20:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T11:20:26","slug":"sermaye-sadece-getiri-degil-ongorulebilir-bir-ortam-ariyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/2026\/04\/10\/sermaye-sadece-getiri-degil-ongorulebilir-bir-ortam-ariyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Sermaye Sadece Getiri De\u011fil, \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir Bir Ortam Ar\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Uluslararas\u0131\u00a0Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nin (UEZ 2026) ilk panelinde konu\u015fan Garanti BBVA Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Seda G\u00fcler Mert, S\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir noktada bulunuyoruz. Sava\u015f sadece risk primini etkileyen bir katman de\u011fil, lojistik ve hammadde tedari\u011fi gibi konular\u0131 da etkiliyor. Sermaye en y\u00fcksek getiriyi arayacak ancak daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir ortam ar\u0131yor.\u201d dedi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana\u00a0Capital, Ekonomist\u00a0<\/strong>ve\u00a0Start Up\u00a0<\/strong>dergileri taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen Uluslararas\u0131\u00a0Ekonomi Zirvesi (UEZ 2026), bu y\u0131l 15\u2019inci kez T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sayg\u0131n siyaset\u00e7ilerini, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 liderlerini ve akademisyenlerini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l\u00a0\u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm: Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ve S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir Bir K\u00fcresel Sisteme Ge\u00e7i\u015fin Pusulas\u0131\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0temas\u0131yla d\u00fczenlenen zirvenin ana sponsorlu\u011funu\u00a0Tera Finans Grubu<\/strong>\u00a0\u00fcstleniyor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Zirvenin ilk panelinde k\u00fcresel ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler ele al\u0131nd\u0131.\u00a0TEPAV Ekonomik ve Yap\u0131sal Politikalar Merkezi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Dr. Burcu Ayd\u0131n\u00a0<\/strong>moderat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen panelin sponsorlu\u011funu,\u00a0Garanti BBVA<\/strong>\u00a0\u00fcstlendi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dr. Burcu Ayd\u0131n,\u00a0\u201cGlobal Ekonomide Yeni Dengeler ve T\u00fcrkiye\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 panelin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcreci i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu belirtti. Sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 30\u2019un \u00fczerinde seyreden enflasyonun, bu y\u0131lki hedeflerle birlikte hem hane halk\u0131 hem de reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinde belirleyici bir bask\u0131 unsuru haline geldi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Farkl\u0131 ele\u015ftirilerin g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011fu bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeni bir \u015fokla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Ayd\u0131n, bu geli\u015fmeler do\u011frultusunda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve rezerv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla \u015fekillenen bir politika setine y\u00f6neldi\u011fini belirtti.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Kas\u0131m Han: \u201c\u00dc\u00e7 \u00fclkede birden rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi gerekiyor\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

TED \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Ahmet Kas\u0131m Han<\/strong>\u00a0da 2000\u2019li ve 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llarda \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki farklar\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerin aksine, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getiren Han, \u201cAma kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f nas\u0131l olur derseniz, size \u00e7ok net olarak s\u00f6yleyeyim. \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fclkede birden rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi gerekiyor. ABD’de, \u0130srail’de ve \u0130ran’da. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde de rejim de\u011fi\u015fmeden bu b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f tesis edilmesi pek bir imkan dahilinde de\u011fil.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel sava\u015f riski ve artan jeopolitik belirsizliklerin k\u0131sa vadede ciddi riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Han, buna kar\u015f\u0131n uzun vadede T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin mevcut jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lma s\u00fcrecinden \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar ve kazan\u0131mlar \u00fcretebilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Ali Hakan Kara: \u201cMerkez bankas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kurtaramaz\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bilkent \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130ktisat B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Merkez Bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 & Finansal Piyasalar Profes\u00f6r\u00fc Prof. Dr. Ali Hakan Kara<\/strong>\u00a0ise k\u00fcresel kriz ve sava\u015f ortam\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu.<\/p>\n

Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon hedeflerinde eskisi kadar kat\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Kara, \u201cMerkez bankas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kurtaramaz. Maliye politikas\u0131 ve di\u011fer politika alanlar\u0131 da en az para politikas\u0131 kadar belirleyici.\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ekonominde her y\u0131l mart ay\u0131nda farkl\u0131 bir \u015fokla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 ba\u015farabildi\u011fini belirten Kara, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\u201cEnflasyon konusunda \u00e7ok iyimser de\u011filim ancak dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ve \u015foklar\u0131 absorbe etme kapasitesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha olumlu bir noktaday\u0131m. Maliye politikas\u0131 genel olarak iyi gidiyor ancak d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar nedeniyle baz\u0131 zorluklar s\u00f6z konusu. K\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu anlat\u0131yorduk ancak yeterince kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmuyordu. Ard\u0131ndan gelen k\u00fcresel kriz, bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 somut \u015fekilde ortaya koydu ve not art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. Mevcut sava\u015f ortam\u0131nda da benzer bir s\u00fcrecin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Belirsizliklerin azalmas\u0131yla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeniden not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecine girebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n

Belirsizlikler azal\u0131rsa, sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 da artar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gelinen noktada g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve jeopolitik risklerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden\u00a0Garanti BBVA Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Seda G\u00fcler Mert,<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cK\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin sonu de\u011fil ancak kimlerle entegre oldu\u011funuz \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD-\u00c7in rekabeti, teknolojideki ayr\u0131\u015fmalar, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00dclkeler ticari partnerlerini belirlerken jeopolitik partnerleriyle hareket ediyor. S\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir noktada bulunuyoruz. Sava\u015f sadece risk primini etkileyen bir katman de\u011fil, lojistik ve hammadde tedari\u011fi gibi konular\u0131 da etkiliyor. Sermaye en y\u00fcksek getiriyi arayacak ancak daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir ortam ar\u0131yor.\u201d dedi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar de\u011fil, avantajlar da sunan bir ekonomi oldu\u011funu anlatan Seda G\u00fcler Mert, s\u00f6zlerine \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\u201cSanayide \u00fcretim kapasitesinin olmas\u0131, nitelikli insan kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, hizmet gelirlerinin \u00f6nemli bir pay edinmesi, kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011funun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemdeyiz. Bunlar bize f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor. Ama sermaye neden k\u0131sa vadeli ve f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131 dedi\u011fimizde de y\u00fcksek enflasyon gibi k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Hem maliyet hem de g\u00fcven \u015foku ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na inecek mi, bu t\u00fcr soru i\u015faretleri var. Sa\u011flam bir zeminimiz, temelimiz var desek de daha proaktif olmam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile beraber g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini de konu\u015fmam\u0131z gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye bu \u015foktan daha sa\u011flam \u00e7\u0131kacak. Ancak belirsizlikleri daha da azalt\u0131rsak sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Uzun vadede d\u00fcnya ticaretinin daralmas\u0131 herkesin aleyhine\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ko\u00e7 \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019nden Prof. Dr. Kamil Y\u0131lmaz, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

\u201cSon 60 y\u0131lda k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte s\u00fcrekli artan bir ticaret var; ancak sorunlar\u0131n da artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ciddi k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k oluyoruz. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, ithalat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelere tarifeler koyuyor. \u00c7in\u2019in de \u00fcretici olarak kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ki g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkeler ise daha itidalli davrand\u0131, k\u00f6pr\u00fcler kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir yolun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakt\u0131lar. Uzun vadede d\u00fcnya ticaretinin daralmas\u0131 herkesin aleyhine. ABD ile \u00c7in\u2019in ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisini yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4 daralt\u0131yor. Tamamen enseyi karartmam\u0131za gerek yok. AB\u2019nin Hindistan ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma, Pasifik \u00fclkelerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmalar \u00f6nemli. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinden ziyade uzun vadeye bak\u0131yorum. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin co\u011frafi konumu, Avrupa\u2019ya G\u00fcmr\u00fck Birli\u011fi ile entegrasyonu \u00f6nemli. Bu yeni olu\u015fan d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin bize ne kadar fayda sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131na, bizi ne kadar ileri ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131na bakmak laz\u0131m. Biz yine G\u00fcmr\u00fck Birli\u011fi konusunda ad\u0131mlar atmak zorunday\u0131z.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kaynak: (BYZHA) Beyaz Haber Ajans\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uluslararas\u0131\u00a0Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nin (UEZ 2026) ilk panelinde konu\u015fan Garanti BBVA Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Seda G\u00fcler Mert, S\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir noktada bulunuyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9627,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9626"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9626\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9628,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9626\/revisions\/9628"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akdenizolay.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}